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Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011573805
Futures markets are a potentially valuable source of information about price expectations. Exploiting this information has proved difficult in practice, because time-varying risk premia often render the futures price a poor measure of the market expectation of the price of the underlying asset....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012996209
How should we interpret the World Values Survey (WVS) trust question? We conduct an experiment in India, a low trust country, to correlate the WVS trust question with trust decisions in an incentivized Trust Game. Evidence supports findings from one strand of the fractured literature – the WVS...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012993949
To understand macroeconomic risks underlying currency carry trades, I propose exploiting rich source of information from analysts’ economic growth forecasts. Specifically, I obtain measures of global growth prospects from the cross-analyst distribution of real GDP growth forecasts. I find that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013406207
venture from those who do not. Based on Vroom's (Work and motivation, 1964) expectancy theory, we predict that startup … is positively related to operative firm status. Overall, our results suggest that expectancy theory holds promise for …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013117783
There is a widespread belief that changes in expectations may be an important independent driver of economic fluctuations. The news view of business cycles offers a formalization of this perspective. In this paper we discuss mechanisms by which changes in agents' information, due to the arrival...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012459250
This study explores multivariate methods for investment analysis based on a sample of return histories that differ in length across assets. The longer histories provide greater information about moments of returns, not only for the longer-history assets, but for the shorter-history assets as...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012472906
This paper characterizes the forces that determine time-variation in expected international asset returns. We offer a number of innovations. By using the latent factor technique, we do not have to prespecify the sources of risk. We solve for the latent premiums and characterize their...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012474276
This paper provides a framework for evaluating how market participants' beliefs about foreign exchange target zones change as they learn about central bank intervention policy. In order to examine this behavior, we first generalize the standard target zone model to allow for intra-marginal...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012475337
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