The slope coefficient estimator in predictive regressions for stock returns is biased by a lagged stochastic regressor. There is also a spurious regression if the underlying expected return is highly persistent. This paper studies how the interactions between the two biases affect inferences...

GLOBAL FINANCE LIQUIDITY RISK REVISITED: Development of A Framework for Liquidity Assessment in Portfolio Construction Process: Presentations to the JP Morgan Global Head of Quant Research & Analytics and US Head of Portfolio Construction Teams:Presentations To: JP Morgan Global Head of Quant...

GLOBAL FINANCE LIQUIDITY RISK REVISITED: JP Morgan Alternative Assets Portfolio Liquidity Assessment Framework & Models: $500 Billion Fund of Funds: 17 Asset ClassesPresentations atJP Morgan World HQ, 270 Park Ave, Manhattan, NY, USAToJP Morgan Global Head of Quant Research & Analytics, JP...

Oil plays a very important role in the Indian economy and the stock market. In India, oil is key factor as nearly 85% of crude oil requirements are fulfilled through imports. It is believed that Indian stock market and crude oil are inversely proportional. In the past, it was seen that when...

This study sheds new light on the question of whether or not sentiment surveys, and the expectations derived from them, are relevant to forecasting economic growth and stock returns, and whether they contain information that is orthogonal to macroeconomic and financial data. I examine 16...

We introduce a new hybrid approach to joint estimation of Value at Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) for high quantiles of return distributions. We investigate the relative performance of VaR and ES models using daily returns for sixteen stock market indices (eight from developed and eight...

While it is widely agreed that Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) holds as a long-run concept the specific dynamic driving the process is largely build upon a priori economic belief rather than a thorough statistical modeling procedure. The two prevailing time series models, i.e. the exponential...

This paper uses the Markov-switching multifractal (MSM) model and generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH)-type models to forecast oil price volatility over the time periods from January 02, 1875 to December 31, 1895 and from January 03, 1977 to March 24, 2014. Based on...

The aim of this article is to examine how the dynamics of correlations between two emerging countries (Brazil and Mexico) and the US evolved from January 2003 to December 2013. The main contribution of this study is to explore whether the plunging stock market in the US, in the aftermath of...

In this paper we examine the empirical performance of affine jump diffusion models with stochastic volatility in a time series study of crude oil prices. We compare four different models and estimate them using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo method. The support for a stochastic volatility model...