This paper investigates the impact of infectious diseases on the evolution of sovereign credit default swap (CDS) spreads for a panel of 77 advanced and developing countries. Using annual data over the 2004-2020 period, we find that infectious-disease outbreaks have no discernible effect on CDS...

We exploit emerging market sovereign CDS spreads to examine the reaction of sovereign credit risk to changes in country-specific and global financial factors. Utilizing a VAR model fitted with DCC GARCH, we find that comovements of spreads generally exhibit significant time-varying correlations,...

This paper documents a significant time-series momentum effect that is consistent and robust across all examined conventional asset classes from 1969 to 2015. We find that the duration and magnitude of time-series momentum is different in developed and emerging markets, but this is no longer the...

In this paper we derive the measure of position-unwinding risk of currency carry trade portfolios from the currency option pricing model. The position-unwinding likelihood indicator is in nature driven by interest rate differential and currency volatility, and highly correlated with global...

Using a sample of 161 global banks in 23 countries, we examine the applicability of structural models and bank fundamentals to price global bank credit risk. First, we find that variables predicted by structural models (leverage, volatility, and risk-free rate) are significantly associated with...

This note draws an analogy between deviations from no-arbitrage forward-spot relationships in currency and in commodity markets. The key is to notice that the U.S. dollar acts as a commodity in foreign exchange (FX) markets. In the physical commodity space, if the spot price is too high relative...

Based on daily data from 1989-2016 we find that the correlations between some relevant commodity market futures and equity returns in the aggregate U.S. market, and specifically in the energy sector stocks have changed strongly during the stock market crisis periods. The correlation between...

A new economic revolution liberating financial markets? Seeks to answer some of the questions driving the existential crisis embroiling finance: What is currency? What is value? What is a business? What is a bank, even?This article discusses how regulatory reform, transformative technologies,...

I extend the evidence on the basic stylized facts documented for the U.S. variance risk premium (VP) and show that, while VPs in other countries are also positive and time varying, they do not have predictive power for domestic stock returns, in contrast to the implications of existing...

While the idea of governments issuing financial instruments whose repayments are indexed to gross domestic product (GDP) is not new, the current global backdrop of high sovereign debt coupled with low interest rates and weak and uncertain nominal growth prospects suggests the case for doing so...