This paper assesses the role of financial variables in real economic fluctuations, in view of analysing the link between financial cycles and business cycles at the global level. A Global VAR modelling approach, which has been proved suitable for modelling country or regional linkages, is used...

This paper reveals cross-country evidence on how the development of the financial system affects business cycle's volatility. The link between credit markets and economic activity has been the focus of extensive literature, but no cross-country empirical study relating the volatility of economic...

Goodwin's predator-prey model predicts clockwise cycles in the employment–distribution space. Qualitative evidence is provided in favour of nonlinear dynamic behaviour for a sample of 67 countries, some of which have cycles similar to those predicted by the model. Predicted centres lie outside...

Are business cycles different according to the exchange rate regime? Baxter & Stockman have inconclusive results. We reinvestigate this question with more recent data and a different methodology and find evidence, for some aggregates, that their business cycle behavior has changed. We then try...

Credit booms have globally fuelled hikes in stock, raw material and real estate markets which have culminated in the recent US subprime market crisis. We explain the global asset market booms since the mid 1980s based on the overinvestment theories of Hayek, Wicksell and Schumpeter. We argue...