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Sellers of variance swaps earn time-varying risk premia for their exposure to realized variance, the level of variance swap rates, and the slope of the variance swap curve. To measure risk premia, we estimate a dynamic term structure model that decomposes variance swap rates into expected...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012968484
In this paper, I analyze credit risk premia embedded in sovereign CDS spreads. In particular, I consider a heretofore largely ignored component that reflects the compensation investors demand for default event risk. I find that this default event risk premium is most heavily priced in short...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012920738
degree of volatility risk in stock and index returns, where we characterize volatility risk by the extent to which … forecasting errors in realized volatility are substantive. Even though returns standardized by ex post quadratic variation … distribution of returns. Explicitly modeling this volatility risk is fundamental. We propose a dually asymmetric realized …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010366935
degree of volatility risk in stock and index returns, where we characterize volatility risk by the extent to which … forecasting errors in realized volatility are substantive. Even though returns standardized by ex post quadratic variation … distribution of returns. Explicitly modeling this volatility risk is fundamental. We propose a dually asymmetric realized …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011553303
We investigate the pricing of volatility risks in currency markets. First, we show that pricing ability of volatility … risk is concentrated in some of its components. Diffusive volatility dominates jump volatility in pricing carry trade … returns, while jump volatility is important in jointly explaining carry trade and momentum returns. Both short-run and long …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013012552
This paper proposes a novel approach to assessing volatility contagion across equity markets. I decompose the variance … volatility contagion. This suggests that investors believe that equity returns will be more highly correlated across countries … approach to testing the existence of volatility contagion does not rely on short periods of financial distress, but allows for …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013014533
advantages: i) ensures nonnegative interest rates, ii) easily accommodates unspanned factors affecting volatility and risk …, volatility, and risk premium dynamics — including when interest rates are close to the zero lower bound …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010338764
This paper studies the predictability of S&P500 returns using short term risk premia as a conditioning variable. We construct dividend prices using futures data and identify short term risk premia by projecting excess returns of dividend claims on their lagged prices. Regression results for...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013091355
This paper develops a new approach for variance trading. We show that the discretely-sampled realized variance can be robustly replicated under very general conditions, including when the price can jump. The replication strategy specifies the exact timing for rebalancing in the underlying. The...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013067300
We identify a global risk factor in the cross-section of implied volatility returns in currency markets. A zero …-cost strategy that buys forward volatility agreements with downward sloping implied volatility curves and sells those with upward … slopes - volatility carry strategy - generates significant excess returns. The covariation with volatility carry returns …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012902489