Showing 1 - 10 of 31,627
by estimating the intermittency parameter and forecasting of volatility for a sample of financial data from stock and … foreign exchange markets. -- Random Lognormal cascades ; GMM estimation ; best linear forecasting ; volatility of financial …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009389845
This paper develops a new approach for variance trading. We show that the discretely-sampled realized variance can be robustly replicated under very general conditions, including when the price can jump. The replication strategy specifies the exact timing for rebalancing in the underlying. The...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013067300
This paper estimates global bad and good uncertainties from monthly data on industrial production from a large set of countries. Bad and good uncertainties have opposite effects on macro aggregates and stock returns. An increase in bad uncertainty adversely impacts both, while an increase in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013000053
We study how the excess market return depends on the time of the day using E-mini S&P 500 futures that are actively traded for almost 24 hours. Strikingly, four hours around European open account for the entire average market return. This period's returns are consistently positive in every year,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012834630
We exploit a unique dataset of country-specific military expenditures and construct a proxy for international instability, measured as the growth of the global military expenditure to GDP ratio, to capture political tensions and international conflicts. Using the market indices of 44 countries,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013008132
This paper proposes Spillover Persistence as a measure for financial fragility. The volatility paradox predicts that … fragility builds up when volatility is low, which challenges existing measures. Spillover Persistence tackles this challenge by …. Variation in financial constraints connects Spillover Persistence to fragility. The results are consistent with the volatility …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012499703
Traders in global markets operate at different local times-of-day. Suboptimal times-of-day may produce sleepiness due to daily variations in sleep/wake patterns and possibly also increased accumulation of hours awake. Global asset markets imply significantly increased heterogeneity in circadian...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012947730
- and second-moment exchange rate exposure on individual firm value and the stock return volatility underlying exchange rate … equity financing cost. -- exchange rate exposure ; asymmetric currency exposure ; financial crises ; asymmetric volatility …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009743539
focuses on volatility, where volatility is derived from a GARCH model. The results suggest that models which account for …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013096369
We propose a model of volatility tail behavior, in which the pricing measure dominates the physical measure in both … tails of the volatility distribution and, hence, the derived pricing kernel exhibits an increasing and decreasing region in … the volatility dimension. The model features investors who have heterogeneity in beliefs about volatility outcomes, and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013108996