Our study shows that China could contribute to an orderly global rebalancing by a package of policies to stimulate its domestic consumption. These policies include a progressive appreciation of RMB, fiscal stimuli of increasing social expenditures on education, healthcare, social safety net and...

This article evaluates and compares the forecasting performance of three international organizations: the United Nations, the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank. The annual forecasts made by the United Nations in the period of 1981-2011 are found to be fairly robust, in terms of bias...

Rebalancing the large U.S. trade deficits could take different paths. Based on model simulations, the paper shows that if rebalancing is based solely on a sharp cut in the U.S. domestic demand, a recession will be inevitable for the U.S. economy, and the adverse impact for the global economy...

Most studies of the macroeconomic impact of higher oil prices do not distinguish two different cases of higher oil prices: the demand-driven versus supply-driven. As result, these studies, particularly those quantitative ones, would either underestimate the acuteness of a true supply-side oil...

Policymakers worldwide are primarily concerned about the sustainability of the global imbalances and the implications for the stability of the world economy, but they have not paid enough attention to the implications of the imbalances for the equity and efficiency of the resource allocation...