Showing 1 - 10 of 18,979
We re-examine dividend growth and return predictability evidence using 165 years of data from the Brussels Stock … Exchange. The conventional wisdom holds that time-varying dividend yield is predominately explained by changes in expected … returns and that expected dividend growth is only weakly forecastable. However, we find robust dividend growth predictability …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012897291
We examine the pricing of tail risk in international stock markets. We find that the tail risk of different countries is highly integrated. Introducing a new World Fear index, we find that local and global aggregate market returns are mainly driven by global tail risk rather than local tail...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011751251
We compare several representative sophisticated model averaging and variable selection techniques of forecasting stock returns. When estimated traditionally, our results confirm that the simple combination of individual predictors is superior. However, sophisticated models improve dramatically...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012901029
This paper proposes a two-state predictive regression model and shows that stock market 12-month return (TMR), the time-series momentum predictor of Moskowitz, Ooi, and Pedersen (2012), forecasts the aggregate stock market negatively in good times and positively in bad times. The out-of-sample...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012974764
Stock return predictability by investor sentiment has been subject to constant updating, but reaching a decisive conclusion seems rather challenging as academic research relies heavily on US data. We provide fresh evidence on stock return predictability in an international setting and show that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013005275
This paper studies the intertemporal relation between U.S. volatility risk and international equity risk premia. We show that a common volatility risk factor constructed from the option-implied U.S. forward variances positively and significantly predicts future stock market returns of the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014236052
This study presents international evidence on the dividend month premium. In the US, Hartzmark and Solomon (2013) find … abnormally high returns during the months when stocks are predicted to pay a dividend. We test for this predicted dividend month … of the anomaly, though the dividend month forecasting rule also plays a role in explaining abnormal returns …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013029370
We propose a new approach to imposing economic constraints on forecasts of the equity premium. Economic constraints are used to modify the posterior distribution of the parameters of the predictive return regression in a way that better allows the model to learn from the data. We consider two...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013064939
This paper provides global evidence supporting the hypothesis that expected return models are enhanced by the inclusion of variables that describe the evolution of book-to-market-changes in book value, changes in price, and net share issues. This conclusion is supported using data representing...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012022063
There is a generalized conviction that variation in dividend yields is exclusively related to expected returns and not … to expected dividend growth - e.g. Cochrane's presidential address (Cochrane (2011)). We show that this pattern, although … valid for the aggregate stock market, is not true for portfolios of small and value stocks, where dividend yields are …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013036406