This paper studies the intertemporal relation between U.S. volatility risk and international equity risk premia. We show that a common volatility risk factor constructed from the option-implied U.S. forward variances positively and significantly predicts future stock market returns of the...

We show that technical indicators deliver economic value in predicting the U.S. equity premium. A crucial element of this value stems from the stability of return predictability over the full sample period from 1950 to 2013. Results tentatively improve over time and beat alternatives over...

We examine the pricing of tail risk in international stock markets. We find that the tail risk of different countries is highly integrated. Introducing a new World Fear index, we find that local and global aggregate market returns are mainly driven by global tail risk rather than local tail...

This paper evaluates and compares the ability of alternative option-implied volatility measures to forecast the monthly realized volatility of crude-oil returns. We find that a corridor implied volatility measure that aggregates information from a narrow range of option contracts consistently...

We construct a global implied volatility surface by combining information from the index options of twenty countries and regions. The convexity of the global surface positively predicts equity premia around the world, in- and out-of-sample, at horizons from one to twelve months. Semi-annually,...

I develop and test a model to study the interaction between the commodity and stock markets. This study attempts to clarify the debate about the effect of financialization on commodity markets. Theoretically, the futures risk premium is determined by hedging pressure, stock market returns, and...

Fixed income Asian options are frequently adopted by companies to hedge interest rate risk. Having a payoff structure depending on the cumulative short-term rate makes them particularly informativeabout interest rate volatility risk. Based on a joint dataset of bonds and Asian interest rate...

We show that the slight possibility of a macroeconomic disaster of moderate magnitude can explain important features across credit, option, and equity markets. Our consumption-based equilibrium model captures the empirical level and volatility of credit spreads, generates a flexible credit term...

In this paper we document that realized variation measures constructed from high-frequency returns reveal a large degree of volatility risk in stock and index returns, where we characterize volatility risk by the extent to which forecasting errors in realized volatility are substantive. Even...