The benefits of using flight-to-safety (FTS) in volatility forecasting are assessed within a multivariate GARCH framework. In particular, we propose realized semi-covariance between falling equity and rising safe haven returns as a proxy of FTS and we use it to model the conditional distribution...

Stock prices are one of the most volatile economic variables and forecasting stock prices and their returns has proved very challenging, if not impossible. In this paper, we apply a battery of linear and nonlinear models to forecast the returns in nine international stock exchanges for the...

The institutions of bankruptcy have been at the center of the great economic events of the last decade, ranging from the Asian economic crisis, to the transition from socialism to capitalism. Our understanding of the economic, and legal structure of these institutions, as well as of their impact...