Recent trends suggest the world economy may be tending towards an equilibrium with two distinct trading blocs, each internally integrated, but with significant isolation between the blocs. This paper uses a quantitative theory to explore how far this bifurcation would need to go to pose a threat...

This paper studies how a climate shock is transmitted through the financial system. Our empirical strategy combines data on climate and banking with El Niño, a natural experiment producing quasi-random variation in US climate. El Niño generates heterogeneous changes in lending across counties,...

We propose a model of endogenous, persistent coordination on the international medium of exchange. An asset becomes the dominant international medium because it is widely held, and remains widely held because it is dominant. The country issuing the dominant asset is a net debtor, but earns an...

Stablecoins and money market funds both seek to provide investors with safe, money-like assets but are vulnerable to runs in times of stress. In this paper, we investigate similarities and differences between the two, comparing investor behavior during the stablecoin runs of 2022 and 2023 to...

Stablecoins and money market funds both seek to provide investors with safe, money-like assets but are vulnerable to runs in times of stress. In this paper, we investigate similarities and differences between the two, comparing investor behavior during the stablecoin runs of 2022 and 2023 to...