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We present non-linear models to capture the turning points in global economic activity as well as in advanced and emerging economies from 1980 to 2017. We first estimate Markov Switching models within a univariate framework. These models support the relevance of three business cycle regimes...
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We estimate Okun's law, the negative relationship between output and the unemployment rate, at the sector level for the … coefficients are proportional to the aggregate in all four countries. We also show that the standard deviation of unemployment is …
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