This study sheds new light on the question of whether or not sentiment surveys, and the expectations derived from them, are relevant to forecasting economic growth and stock returns, and whether they contain information that is orthogonal to macroeconomic and financial data. I examine 16...

We propose a general framework for efficient pricing via a Partial Differential Equation (PDE) approach of cross-currency interest rate derivatives under the Hull-White model. In particular, we focus on pricing long-dated foreign exchange (FX) interest rate hybrids, namely Power Reverse Dual...

This paper revisits the study of time-varying excess bond returns in international bond markets. Using newly available yield curve data from 10 different countries with independent monetary policy, I test the robustness of Cochrane and Piazzesi (2005). For most countries in my sample, I find...

We find evidence for time-varying risk premia across international bond markets. Local and global factors jointly predict returns. The global factor is closely linked to US bond risk premia and international business cycles. Movements in the global factor seem to drive risk premia and expected...

Uncovered interest rate parity, together with long-run relative purchase power parity, implies that the real exchange rate has predictive power for real bond return differentials. We show this implication to be at odds with the data. Hence, we provide new (indirect) evidence of time-varying...

This article studies the economic factors behind corporate default risk premia in Europe during the period 2006–2010. We employ information embedded in Credit Default Swap (CDS) contracts to quantify expected excess returns from the underlying bonds in market-wide default circumstances. We...

The endeavor to understand bond returns and the term structure of interest rates has generated an extensive literature, ranging from papers on return predictability and affine term structure models to theoretical contributions in the form of equilibrium models. While most of the empirical...

This paper constructs risk-free interest rates implicit in index option prices for ten of the major G11 currencies. We compare these rates to the yields of government bonds to provide international estimates of the convenience yield earned by safe assets. Average convenience yields across...

This paper investigates the sensitivity of the demand for safe government debt to currency unhedged and hedged excess returns in a sample of US mutual funds. We find evidence of active rebalancing towards government bonds that offer relatively higher returns on an unhedged basis, in particular...