Showing 1 - 10 of 19,805
volatility to estimate the changing spillover of global oil shocks into the Maltese economy during the period that goes from …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014380679
We develop a novel multinomial logistic model to detect and forecast concurrent recessions across multi-countries. The key advantage of our proposed framework is that we can detect recessions across countries using the additional informational content from the cross-country panel feature of the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013365832
paper offers a solution to this disagreement, suggesting that volatility carries a positive direct effect, but also a … volatility is then ambiguous. The paper reveals the underlying endogeneity of government size in a balanced panel of 95 countries … increase of volatility lowers growth by up to 0.57 percentage points in a democracy, but raises growth by 1.74 percentage …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010228789
According to a growing body of empirical literature, global shocks have become less important for business cycles in industrialized countries and emerging market economies since the mid-1980s. In this paper, we analyze the question of what might have caused a decoupling from the global business...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011584095
We analyze the implications of financial openness to macroeconomic volatility in a small open economy. Major … macroeconomic aggregates show non-monotonic volatility patterns with respect to the degree of financial openness in the model … without domestic financial frictions. The introduction of domestic financial frictions makes the volatility patterns flatter …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003449265
volatility of US and UK GDP growth appears to have become increasingly correlated in the recent past. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011554403
percentage point increase in the middle-aged share of the population decreases output volatility by 15 percent for the average …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013075174
volatility. Instrumental variable estimation supports our intuition about the direction of causality …Since output growth volatility has negative effects on growth, poverty and welfare, especially in poorer countries, it …. Remittances can help reduce output growth volatility thanks to their considerable magnitude, stability and low pro …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012723723
volatility of emerging economies. We study a multi-sector small open economy in which firms produce and trade commodities and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012936988
We propose a new time-varying peaks over threshold model to study tail risk dynamics in equity markets: the laws of motion for the parameters are defined through the score-based approach. We apply the model to daily returns from U.S. size-sorted decile stock portfolios and show that large firm...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012972558