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movements in the global commodity markets. To test this perception, we use the case of India to establish in a standard SVAR … model that global food prices influence aggregate prices and food prices in India. To further analyze these empirical … over the period from 1996Q2 to 2013Q2 by applying Bayesian estimation techniques. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011336943
We introduce a new hybrid approach to joint estimation of Value at Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) for high … lower cost in capital reserves. In ES estimation the hybrid model yields the smallest error statistics surpassing even the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003891679
The present study compares the performance of the long memory FIGARCH model, with that of the short memory GARCH specification, in the forecasting of multi-period Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) across 20 stock indices worldwide. The dataset is comprised of daily data covering...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012910119
In this paper we document that realized variation measures constructed from high-frequency returns reveal a large degree of volatility risk in stock and index returns, where we characterize volatility risk by the extent to which forecasting errors in realized volatility are substantive. Even...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013149893
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013270502
, it meets the replicability test. It utilizes clean and consistent inflation metrics, indicates the start and end dates of … the method used to calculate inflation rates …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013085888
We propose a tool to predict risks to economic growth and international business cycles spillovers: the GDP-Network CoVaR. Our methodology to assess Growth-at-Risk is composed by two building blocks. First, we apply the network-based NETS methodology by Barigozzi and Brownlees to identify...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012916959
investigates the prevalence of inefficiencies during the post GFC period (2010-18) in India. A stochastic frontier gravity model is … variable and five dimensions of the Economic Freedom Index (EFI) as explanatory variables for India and at an aggregate level … environment of India during the period of analysis, which can be mainly attributed to the November 2016 sudden implementation of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014352025
inflation, trade flows, capital inflow, capital account transactions, reserve accumulation, global liquidity (e.g., global broad … money), and monetary aggregates, with regard to Indonesia's GDP variables and inflation. This paper uses threshold vector … identified two groups of upper regime and lower regime world variables-namely, world inflation, world GDP, and world commodity …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012799838
useful information about variables such as commodity prices which matter for aggregate demand and thus inflation. Given this …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010208787