I use Bayesian VARs to forecast global temperatures anomalies until the end of the XXI century by exploiting their … cointegration with the Joint Radiative Forcing (JRF) of the drivers of climate change. Under a ‘no change’ scenario, the most … favorable median forecast predicts the land temperature anomaly to reach 5.6 Celsius degrees in 2100. Forecasts conditional on …

This paper analyzes the role of uncertainty on both exchange rate expectations and forecast errors of professionals for … Bayesian VAR approach, we observe that effects on forecast errors of professionals turn out to be more significant compared to … the adjustment of exchange rate expectations. Our findings are robust to different forecasting horizons and point to an …