This study focuses on the consensus forecasts from the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) for 1993-2017. These include the SPF forecasts of US 10-year Treasury rate (TBR), Moody's Aaa corporate bond rate (Aaa), CPI inflation, and real GDP growth. We show that both SPF and random walk...

In line with term structure theory, empirical studies suggest that it is difficult to beat the random walk in forecasting long-term interest rates. We ask whether consumer survey data on both mortgage interest rates and expected inflation help beat the random walk in forecasting the 30-year...

The cyclical variation behavior of the mortgage spread has motivated some studies to investigate its relationship to economic activity. Indeed, recent empirical findings indicate that the mortgage spread is a determinant/predictor of economic activity. We define the mortgage spread as the...

Successful portfolio management strategies partly require accurate forecasts of term spreads. Such forecasts may also be useful for policymaking since the yield curve may contain predictive information for economic growth. This study asks whether experts accurately predict term spreads. We show...