This paper studies whether the evident statistical predictability of bond risk premia translates into economic gains for investors. We propose a novel estimation strategy for a ne term structure models that jointly fits yields and bond excess returns, thereby capturing predictive information...

We study the properties of foreign exchange risk premiums that can explain the forward bias puzzle, defined as the tendency of high-interest rate currencies to appreciate rather than depreciate. These risk premiums arise endogenously from the no-arbitrage condition relating the term structure of...

This paper provides an econometric analysis of parameter estimation for continuous-time affine term structure models that are driven by latent diffusions. Simulating an affine two factor short rate model where one process is Gaussian and the other factor is square root we perform a comparison...