This present paper provides both theoretical and empirical analyses of multi-factor joint affine term structure models (JATSMs) in explaining the co-movements of international term structure slopes. We extend the single-country affine term structure models of Dai and Singleton (2000) to a...

In this paper we compare the in-sample fit and out-of-sample forecasting performance of no-arbitrage quadratic and essentially affine term structure models, as well as the dynamic Nelson-Siegel model. In total eleven model variants are evaluated, comprising five quadratic, four affine and two...

In this paper we compare the in-sample fit and out-of-sample forecasting performance of no-arbitrage quadratic and essentially affine term structure models, as well as the dynamic Nelson-Siegel model. In total eleven model variants are evaluated, comprising five quadratic, four affine and two...

We test whether the Nelson and Siegel (1987) yield curve model is arbitrage-free in a statistical sense. Theoretically, the Nelson-Siegel model does not ensure the absence of arbitrage opportunities, as shown by Bjork and Christensen (1999). Still, central banks and public wealth managers rely...

The main goal of this paper is to better understand the behavior of credit spreads in the past and the potential risk of unexpected future credit spread changes. One important consideration to note regarding credit spreads is the fact that bond spreads contain a liquidity premium, which...

The prices of or spread on credit default swaps (CDS) theoretically represent the pure credit risk of a firm. Callen, Livnat and Segal (2007) note that although the CDS premium is related to credit ratings issued by the rating agencies, rather wide variation in CDS spreads are observed for firms...

Testing for unit roots in short-term interest rates plays a key role in the empirical modelling of these series. It is widely assumed that the volatility of interest rates follows some time-varying function which is dependent of the level of the series. This may cause distortions in the...

This paper shows that the Fed reacts to change in spreads between corporate bond yields and government bond yields over and beyond their information content on future inflation and future activity. This result, obtained in a GMM framework, is confirmed by simulation methods. Moreover, when...

The yield curve is one of the fundamental input parameters of pricing theories in capital markets. Information about yields can be observed in a discrete form either directly through traded yield instruments (e.g. Interest Rate SWAP's) or indirectly through prices of bonds (e.g. Government...

This paper uses high-frequency real-time spot prices and day-ahead forward prices from the eastern hub of the Pennsylvania-New Jersey-Maryland (PJM) electricity market to calculate, describe, and forecast realized spot price volatility. Using Heterogeneous Autoregressive models of realized...