In this paper we empirically study the variance term structure using VIX futures market. We first derive a new pricing framework for VIX futures that is convenient to study variance term structure dynamics. We construct five models and use Kalman filter and Maximum Likelihood method for model...

Recent empirical studies suggest that demand and supply factors have important effects on bond yields. Both market segmentation and preferred habitat hypothesis are used to explain these demand and supply effects. In this paper, we use an affine preferred-habitat term structure model and the...

Recent empirical studies suggest that demand and supply factors have important effects on bond yields. Both market segmentation and preferred habitat hypothesis are used to explain these demand and supply effects. In this paper, we use an affine preferred-habitat term structure model and the...

While economic variables have been used extensively to forecast bond risk premia, little attention has been paid to technical indicators which are widely used by practitioners. In this paper, we study the predictive ability of a variety of technical indicators vis-a-vis the economic variables....

This paper examines the macro-spanning hypothesis for bond returns in international markets. Based on a large panel of real-time macro variables that are not subject to revisions, wefind that global macro factors have predictive power for bond returns unspanned by yield factors.Furthermore, we...