The shapes of forward curves of energy commodities are believed to contain information on the volatility of futures prices for these commodities. The slope of the forward curve not only reflects temporal supply and demand conditions, but also the relationship between current and expected market...

We introduce two new methods to calculate bounds for zero-sum game options using Monte Carlo simulation. These extend and generalise the duality results of Haugh-Kogan/Rogers and Jamshidian to the case where both parties of a contract have Bermudan optionality. It is shown that the...

I investigate the economic fundamentals of U.S. gasoline market and their links with the refining margin proxied by the ratio of gasoline and crude oil prices (crack ratio). I document distinct seasonal effects in stocks, production and consumption of gasoline and find that seasonally adjusted...

Compared with stocks, bonds are more directly affected by fluctuations in oil prices through the expected inflation component in nominal bond yields. Surprisingly, prior literature finds little predictive power of oil price changes on bond excess returns. This finding is counter intuitive,...

We investigate the relationships between different types of OPEC announcements and term structure variables (level, slope and curvature) for WTI crude oil futures. We find that agreements to increase (decrease) production are positively (negatively) associated with changes in oil price levels in...

We estimate the presence of financial investors in commodity futures markets from deflections in the term structure. We argue that large-scale inflows from financial investors cause systematic deviations in nearby futures contracts that reflect excessive buying pressure in commodities. We...

This paper presents a simple Ramsey-type model example where two infinitely-living agents have same utility function except for time preference, and shows that equilibrium is indeterminate that is to be interpreted as being non-existent. The issues regarding New Keynesian transversality...

These days it's become convention (reinforced by the media's treatment of wealth) to assess our net worth by tallying up the market value of our financial assets, even though it's more natural and useful to think of our wealth as a stream of dollars over time given the nature of our income and...

This paper considers a class of Heath-Jarrow-Morton (1992) term structure models, characterized by time deterministic volatilities for the instantaneous forward rate. The bias that arises from using observed futures yields as a proxy for the unobserved instantaneous forward rate is analyzed. The...