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This paper constructs risk-free interest rates implicit in index option prices for ten of the major G11 currencies. We compare these rates to the yields of government bonds to provide international estimates of the convenience yield earned by safe assets. Average convenience yields across...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013363650
outperforms popular benchmarks and is at par with the Survey of Professional Forecasters in forecasting inflation. Real rates …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013114689
Using the prices of crude oil futures contracts, we construct the term structure of crude oil convenience yields out to one-year maturity. The crude oil convenience yield can be interpreted as the interest rate, denominated in barrels of oil, for borrowing a single barrel of oil, and it measures...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010401755
This paper examines the relation between variations in perceived inflation uncertainty and bond premia. Using the subjective probability distributions available in the Survey of Professional Forecasters we construct a quarterly time series of average individual uncertainty about inflation...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013040031
This paper examines the relation between variations in perceived inflation uncertainty and bond premia. Using the subjective probability distributions available in the Survey of Professional Forecasters we construct a quarterly time series of average individual uncertainty about inflation...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010441139
multi-step out-of-sample forecasting competition. It turns out that forecasts are improved substantially when allowing for …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009768272
In this paper, we extract common factors from a cross-section of U.S. macro-variables and Treasury zero-coupon yields. We find that two macroeconomic factors have an important predictive content for government bond yields and excess returns. These factors are not spanned by the cross-section of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010886225
We show that two macroeconomic factors have an important predictive content for governmentbond yields and excess returns. These factors are not spanned by the cross-section of yields andare well proxied by economic growth and real interest rates.
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010606850
We propose a new approach to model high and low frequency components of equity correlations. Our framework combines a factor asset pricing structure with other specifications capturing dynamic properties of volatilities and covariances between a single common factor and idiosyncratic returns....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10004974501
of empirical evidence against the ET. Yield spreads do provide important information for forecasting the yield curve …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005730056