Bianchi, Francesco; Kung, Howard; Tirskikh, Mikhail - In: Quantitative economics : QE ; journal of the … 14 (2023) 3, pp. 855-896
We estimate a production‐based general equilibrium model featuring demand‐ and supply‐side uncertainty and an … endogenous term premium. Using term structure and macroeconomic data, we find sizable effects of uncertainty on risk premia and … business cycle fluctuations. Both demand‐ and supply‐side uncertainty imply large contractions in real activity and an increase …