This study evaluates the predictive content of the 3-month Euribor contracts futures. We initially show that there is a forecast error on these contracts, on average positive and increasing with the forecast horizon. Then, we propose a method for correcting futures rates thanks to macroeconomic...

We analyse the degree of anchoring of inflation expectations in the euro area. Using a new estimation technique, we look at the tail co-movement between the moments of short- and long-term distributions of inflation expectations, where those distributions are estimated from daily quotes of...

This paper studies the macroeconomic determinants of the term structures of Treasury yields, corporate bond credit spreads, and corporate bond liquidity spreads in a unified no-arbitrage framework. Four economic factors, monetary conditions, inflation, real output, and financial market...

We use non-Gaussian features in U.S. macroeconomic data to identify aggregate supply and demand shocks while imposing minimal economic assumptions. Macro risks represent the variables that govern the time-varying variance, skewness and higher-order moments of these two shocks, with "good"...

We use non-Gaussian features in U.S. macroeconomic data to identify aggregate supply and demand shocks while imposing minimal economic assumptions. Recessions in the 1970s and 1980s were driven primarily by supply shocks; later recessions by demand shocks. We estimate macro risk factors that...

German government bonds are very popular among investors because of their liquidity and safety, and they are also widely used in repo transactions as collateral. During the recent financial crisis the excess demand for German securities pushed their yields below the theoretical risk-free rate....

I show how funding costs to derivatives dealers' shareholders for carrying and hedging inventory affect mid-market derivatives prices. An implication is that some supposed "no-arbitrage" pricing relationships, such as put-call parity, frequently break down. I also explore the implications for...

We solve a dynamic general equilibrium model with generalized disappointment aversion preferences and continuous state endowment dynamics. We apply the framework to the term structure of interest rates and show that the model generates an upward sloping term structure of nominal interest rates,...

We solve a dynamic equilibrium model with generalized disappointment aversion preferences and continuous state endowment dynamics. We apply the framework to the term structure of interest rates and show that the model generates an upward sloping term structure of nominal interest rates, a...

In this paper, we propose a way to construct a single forward-looking model for interest rates, which represents their evolution under both the Q-measure and P-measure (a joint measure model). As is well known, the market prices of contingent claims are independent of investor risk preferences....