This paper considers a class of Heath-Jarrow-Morton (1992) term structure models, characterized by time deterministic volatilities for the instantaneous forward rate. The bias that arises from using observed futures yields as a proxy for the unobserved instantaneous forward rate is analyzed. The...

The market model of interest rates specifies simple forward or Libor rates as lognormally distributed, their stochastic dynamics has a linear volatility function. In this paper, the model is extended to quadratic volatility functions which are the product of a quadratic polynomial and a...

In this paper we present a tree model for defaultable bond prices which can be used for the pricing of credit derivatives. The model is based upon the two-factor Hull-White (1994) model for default-free interest rates, where one of the factors is taken to be the credit spread of the defaultable...

In this paper a new credit risk model for credit derivatives is presented. The model is based upon the Libor market modelling framework for default-free interest rates. We model effective default-free forward rates and effective forward credit spreads as lognormal diffusion processes, and...

We consider two sequences of Markov chains inducing equivalent measures on the discrete path space. We establish conditions under which these two measures converge weakly to measures induced on the Wiener space by weak solutions of two SDEs, which are unique in the sense of probability law. We...

This paper makes use of an integrated benchmark modeling framework that allows us to derive term structure equations for bond and forward prices. The benchmark or numeraire is chosen to be the growth optimal portfolio (GOP). For deterministic short rate the solution of the bond term structure...

This paper proposes a simple structural model to estimate the term structure of sovereign spreads and the implied default probability of a selected group of emerging countries, which accounts for more than 50% of the J. P. Morgan EMBIG index. The real exchange rate dynamics, modeled as a pure...

The study conducts an empirical test on dollar-denominated sovereign credit spreads in emerging markets, including Brazil, Colombia, Mexico, the Philippines, the Russian Federation, and Turkey to examine their relationship with each country's exchange rate and the United States (US) Treasury...

The objective of our work is to study the term structure of interest rates and the sovereign credit spreads of emerging markets. We develop a model from term structure, credit risk and vector autoregressive models, based on the articles by Ang and Piazzesi (2003) and Ang, Dong and Piazzesi...

The uncertainty around future changes to the Federal Reserve target rate varies over time. In our results, the main driver of uncertainty is a "path" factor signaling information about future policy actions, which is filtered from federal funds futures data. The uncertainty is highest when it...