It is well known that in the postwar period stockreturns have tended to be low when the short term nominal interest rate is high. In this paper I show that more generally the state of the term structure of interest rates predicts stock returns. Risk premia on stocks appear to move closely...

Expectations theories of asset returns may be interpreted as stating either that risk premia are zero, or that they are constant through time. Under the former interpretation, different versions of the expectations theory of the term structure are inconsistent with one another, but I show that...

This paper reviews the literature on the relation between short- and long-term interest rates. It summarizes the mixed evidence on the expectations hypothesis of the term structure: when long rates are high relative to short rates, short rates tend to rise as implied by the expectations...