This paper develops an open-economy Bayesian structural VAR model for Canada in order to estimate the effects of monetary policy shocks, using the overnight target rate as the policy instrument. I allow the policy variable and the financial variables of the model to interact simultaneously with...

We compare the out-of-sample predictive accuracy of a mixture of bond yield models with that of the individual models. The individual models considered here are the dynamic Nelson--Siegel model, arbitrage-free Nelson--Siegel model, and random-walk model. Out-of-sample forecasts for U.S. bond...

Yield curves are used to imply the forward rates and discount factors from market tradable instruments and are required to discount future cash flows and evaluate the price of all financial contracts. Not all instruments can be included in the yield curve calibration or fitting process, hence we...

The use of futures exchange contracts instead of forwards completes the maturityspectrum of the correlation between the spot yield and the premium. We find that theforward premium puzzle (FPP) depends significantly on the maturity horizon of thefutures contract and the choice of the sampling...

The main goal of this paper is to examine the relationship between macroeconomic shocks and yield curve movements in Hungary. To this end, we apply a Nelson-Siegel type dynamic yield curve model, where changes of the yield curve are driven by two latent factors and some key macro variables that...

Despite the single currency, yields on government bonds in the Euro Area deviate from German bond yields. These bond spreads are usually attributed to differing default and liquidity risks. Recent research points out that time-varying global factors, approximated by risk measures or short term...

The main goal of this paper is to examine the relationship between macroeconomic shocks and yield curve movements in Hungary. To this end, we apply a Nelson-Siegel type dynamic yield curve model, where changes of the yield curve are driven by two latent factors and some key macro variables that...

In this paper, we examine the forecasting ability of an affine term structure framework that jointly models the markets for Treasuries, inflation-protected securities, inflation derivatives, and oil future prices based on no-arbitrage restrictions across these markets. On the methodological...

Modeling short-term interest rates as following regime-switching processes has become increasingly popular. Theoretically, regime-switching models are able to capture rational expectations of infrequently occurring discrete events. Technically, they allow for potential time-varying stationarity....

Theoretically, the risk premium captured by Credit Default Swap (CDS) and bond yield spreads should be equal. However, data reveals a significant difference between the two spreads. We explore the presence of a mean-reverting behavior in this difference (CDS-bond basis), for selected emerging...