This study investigated the linkage between the effects of an inverted yield curve and the performance of small, mid, and big cap stocks for the period 2005-2007. The comparative performance of small, mid and big cap stocks during the period was examined. In general, there seemed no significant...

We extract cycles from the term spread and study their role for predicting the equity premium using linear models. When properly extracted, the trend of the term spread is a strong and robust out-of-sample equity premium predictor, both from a statistical and an economic point of view. It...

Several papers decompose stock returns into cash flow and discount rate news to study equity market fluctuations. This paper develops and explores an alternative decomposition for stock returns based on the idea that equity volatility must come from variation in the present value of short- and...

We show that short interest predicts future bad news, negative earnings surprises, and downward revisions in analyst earnings forecasts. Moreover, short interest is a better predictor of changes in firm fundamentals for stocks that are harder to short and short sellers appear to have information...

Investors seek to hedge against interest rate risk by taking long or short positions on bonds ofdifferent maturities. We study changes in risk taking behavior in a low interest rateenvironment by estimating a market stochastic discount factor that is non-linear and thereforeconsistent with the...

We derive a simple expression for the sensitivity of duration, convexity, and higher-order bond risk measures to changes in term structure shape parameters. Our analysis enables fixed income portfolio managers to capture the combined effects of term structure level, slope, and curvature shifts...

Periodic spikes and waves in daily stock return predictability appear across quarterly and other frequencies and dissipate at more distant lags in the term structure of predictability. A 'long ripple' across the term structure spans more than one year of lags. The term structure's level and...

The empirical evidence on the impact of international interest rates on emerging market (EM) bond spreads is mixed. In this article, we closely examine the 2000–2009 period and find a negative relationship between U.S. interest rates and EM bond spreads. We argue that the relationship between...

A vast literature reports excess returns to momentum strategies across many financial asset classes. However, no study examines trading rules based on price history along individual government-bond term structures - that is, with respect to duration buckets across the curve - as opposed to...