We show that short interest predicts future bad news, negative earnings surprises, and downward revisions in analyst earnings forecasts. Moreover, short interest is a better predictor of changes in firm fundamentals for stocks that are harder to short and short sellers appear to have information...

We present a hybrid Heston model with a local stochastic volatility to describe government bond yield dynamics. The model is analytically tractable and, therefore, can be efficiently estimated using the maximum likelihood approach. Twofold is the model contribution. First, it captures changes in...

Investors seek to hedge against interest rate risk by taking long or short positions on bonds ofdifferent maturities. We study changes in risk taking behavior in a low interest rateenvironment by estimating a market stochastic discount factor that is non-linear and thereforeconsistent with the...

During and after the Great Recession of 2008-09, conventional monetary policy in the United States and many other advanced economies was constrained by the effective lower bound (ELB) on nominal interest rates. Several central banks implemented large-scale asset purchase (LSAP) programs, more...

We derive a simple expression for the sensitivity of duration, convexity, and higher-order bond risk measures to changes in term structure shape parameters. Our analysis enables fixed income portfolio managers to capture the combined effects of term structure level, slope, and curvature shifts...

This study investigated the linkage between the effects of an inverted yield curve and the performance of small, mid, and big cap stocks for the period 2005-2007. The comparative performance of small, mid and big cap stocks during the period was examined. In general, there seemed no significant...

This paper examines the momentum effect and its causes, the persistence in default risk change in particular, in both corporate bond and stock markets. Using a comprehensive bond dataset, we observe a significant momentum effect in corporate bond returns and bond credit spread changes. The...

Periodic spikes and waves in daily stock return predictability appear across quarterly and other frequencies and dissipate at more distant lags in the term structure of predictability. A 'long ripple' across the term structure spans more than one year of lags. The term structure's level and...

The paper examines statistical and economic evidence of out-of-sample bond return predictability for a real-time Bayesian investor who learns about parameters, hidden states, and predictive models over time. We find some statistical evidence using information contained in forward rates. However,...

I provide evidence that risks in macroeconomic fundamentals contain valuable information about bond risk premia. I extract factors from a set of quantile-based risk measures estimated for US macroeconomic variables and document that they account for up to 31% of the variation in excess bond...