In this paper, we introduce an extension to the LIBOR Market model that is suitable to incorporate both sudden market shocks as well as changes in the overall economic climate into the interest rate dynamics. This is achieved by substituting the simple diffusion process of the original LIBOR...

We introduce the class of affine forward variance (AFV) models of which both the conventional Heston model and the rough Heston model are special cases. We show that AFV models can be characterized by the affine form of their cumulant generating function, which can be obtained as solution of a...

This paper proposes a data-driven approach, by means of an Artificial Neural Network (ANN), to value financial options within the setting of interest rate term structure models. This aims to accelerate existing numerical methods which is important for applications like historical VaR or exposure...

Risk-free rates (RFRs) play a central role in the reform of interest rate benchmarks. We study a model for RFRs driven by a general affine process. In this context, under minimal assumptions, we derive explicit valuation formulas for forward-looking and backward-looking caplets/floorlets,...

In the current reform of interest rate benchmarks, a central role is played by risk-free rates (RFRs), such as SOFR (secured overnight financing rate) in the US. A key feature of RFRs is the presence of jumps and spikes at periodic time intervals as a result of regulatory and liquidity...

This paper analyses the main drivers of sovereign bond spreads in a globalised world. Specifically, we account for international spillovers of bond spreads by adding an additional driver, namely, financial markets, and allowing interactions across countries and markets. We contribute to the VAR...

The no-arbitrage affine Gaussian term structure model is used for analyzing the impact of macroeconomic surprises on the nominal and the real term structure, in the euro area and in the United States. We find that nominal rates are impacted by surprises on economic growth, labour market and...

This paper presents an analytic approximation formula for pricing zero-coupon bonds, when the dynamics of the short-term interest rate are driven by a one-factor mean-reverting process in which changes in the volatility of the interest rate are a function of the level of the interest rate

The no-arbitrage affine Gaussian term structure model is used to analyse the impact of macroeconomic surprises on the nominal and the real term structure in the euro area and in the United States. We find that nominal rates are affected by surprises in economic growth, the labour market and the...

This paper aims at predicting the volatility term structure of a given asset. The model is based on the GARCH modeling of the asset's volatility, from which the term structure is derived. We test if the model is able to accommodate the term structure response to volatility shocks. Using data...