We investigate the relation between foreign exchange (FX) order flow and the forward bias. We outline a decomposition of the forward bias according to which a negative correlation between interest rate differentials and order flow creates a time-varying risk premium consistent with that bias....

We study a large currency cross section using recently developed asset pricing methods. First, we show that the implied pricing kernel includes three latent factors: a strong U.S. `Dollar' level factor, and two weak, high Sharpe ratio `Carry' and `Momentum' slope factors. The evidence for an...

We obtain ex ante estimates of risk premia for G10 currency pairs using cross-sectional data on exchange rate options. Option prices are well-matched by a non-Gaussian, two-factor model, consistent with evidence from realized currency returns. We find that option-implied currency risk premia...

Lustig and Verdelhan (2007) argue that the excess returns to borrowing US dollars and lending in foreign currency "compensate US investors for taking on more US consumption growth risk," yetthese excess returns are all approximately uncorrelated with the consumption risk factors they study....

This paper identifies a unique dimension of currency carry trade related to the intensity of technology spillover across countries. In the data, technology diffusion is measured by the R\&D ingredient embodied in manufactured goods imports. Empirical evidence shows that the difference in the...

Uncovered interest rate parity, together with long-run relative purchase power parity, implies that the real exchange rate has predictive power for real bond return differentials. We show this implication to be at odds with the data. Hence, we provide new (indirect) evidence of time-varying...

We find evidence for time-varying risk premia across international bond markets. Local and global factors jointly predict returns. The global factor is closely linked to US bond risk premia and international business cycles. Movements in the global factor seem to drive risk premia and expected...