Bonds issued in high and low interest-rate environments often list at different prices despite very similar characteristics. From a risk-neutral investor's perspective, higher current prices imply higher losses in case of default, which must be compensated, if markets are efficient. We call this...

The illiquidity of long-maturity options has made it difficult to study the term structures of option spanning portfolios. This paper proposes a new estimation and inference framework for these option-implied term structures that addresses long-maturity illiquidity. By building a sieve estimator...

The illiquidity of long-maturity options has made it difficult to study the term structures of option spanning portfolios. This paper proposes a new estimation and inference framework for these option-implied term structures that addresses long-maturity illiquidity. By building a sieve estimator...

This paper studies the volatility-of-volatility (VVIX) term structure. We find that the slope of the VVIX, defined as VVIX' second principal component, predicts excess returns of S&P500 and VIX traddles. Its informational content is incremental to the VIX term structure and the variance risk...

I provide evidence that risks in macroeconomic fundamentals contain valuable information about bond risk premia. I extract factors from a set of quantile-based risk measures estimated for US macroeconomic variables and document that they account for up to 31% of the variation in excess bond...

While economic variables have been used extensively to forecast bond risk premia, little attention has been paid to technical indicators which are widely used by practitioners. In this paper, we study the predictive ability of a variety of technical indicators vis-a-vis the economic variables....

We study the term structure of variance (total risk), systematic, and idiosyncratic risk. Consistent with the expectations hypothesis, we find that, for the entire market, the slope of the term structure of variance is mainly informative about the path of future variance. Thus, there is little...

We extract cycles from the term spread and study their role for predicting the equity premium using linear models. When properly extracted, the trend of the term spread is a strong and robust out-of-sample equity premium predictor, both from a statistical and an economic point of view. It...

We show that uncertainty of monetary policy (MPU) commands a risk premium in the US Treasury bond market. Using the news based MPU measure in Baker, Bloom, and Davis (2016) to capture monetary policy uncertainty, we find that MPU forecasts significantly and positively future monthly Treasury...

Using monthly returns to estimate portfolio alphas and betas is inappropriate for investors with longer horizons. Alphas and betas have flat term structures only under special conditions that do not hold generally. The paper develops a novel conditional moment estimation method that is simple,...