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This paper examines the extent to which conclusions of cross-country studies of private savings are robust to allowing … for the possible heterogeneity of savings behavior across countries and the inclusion of dynamics. It shows that … neglecting heterogeneity and dynamics can lead to misleading inferences about the key determinants of savings behavior. The …
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the failure of financial modeling. More specifically, current risk models have failed to properly assess the risks … over prevailing models for evaluating stock market risk exposure during distressed market periods. -- ARMA-GARCH model ; α …-stable distribution ; tempered stable distribution ; value-at-risk (VaR) ; average value-at-risk (AVaR) …
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We have argued that from the standpoint of a policy maker, the uncertainty of using the average forecast is not the variance of the average, but rather the average of the variances of the individual forecasts that incorporate idiosyncratic risks. With a slight reformulation of the loss function...
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This paper analyzes the role of uncertainty on both exchange rate expectations and forecast errors of professionals for four major currencies based on survey data provided by FX4casts. We consider economic policy, macroeconomic, and financial uncertainty as well as disagreement among CPI...
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