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properties for detecting bubbles. Empirical analysis using price-dividend ratios of S&P500 highlights the advantages of our …
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After showing that the distribution of the S&P 500's distortion, i.e. the log difference between its real stock market index and its real fundamental value, is bimodal, we demonstrate that agentbased financial market models may explain this puzzling observation. Within these models, speculators...
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This paper provides an early warning indicator for bubbles in financial markets. The indicator is based on traditional … consensus bubbles and gives warning signals well ahead of the crash, in most cases as early as 12 months ahead. The indicator … also signals most of the 'negative bubbles' before their turning points …
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This paper sheds new light on the mutual relationship between investor sentiment and excess returns corresponding to the bubble component of stock prices. We propose to use the wavelet concept of the phase angle to determine the lead-lag relation between these variables. The wavelet phase angle...
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