The industry standard model for commodity price dynamics implies constant correlation between returns of futures with different tenors. We extend the model by allowing its parameters to vary over time. This practice enables us to capture the seasonality effect embedded in the evolution of a...

In recent years, fluctuations in such macroeconomic variables as interest rates and exchange rates appear to have significantly affected primary commodity prices. This paper studies the relationship between commodity prices and various macroeconomic variables. It focuses particularly on interest...

The paper seeks to answer the question of how price forecasting can contribute to which techniques gives the most accurate results in the futures commodity market. A total of two families of models (decision trees, artificial intelligence) were used to produce estimates for 2018 and 2022 for 21-...