We demonstrate the power of the Ensemble Kalman Filter in specifying ecosystem models ideal for bioeconomic analysis. Bioeconomic analysis requires models to be relatively simple, but models must still capture the nature and dynamics of the system. With the Ensemble Kalman Filter, we are able to...

For many low-income countries, the impact of structural reforms on economic growth and poverty alleviation crucially depends on the response of aggregate agricultural supply to changing incentives. Despite its policy relevance, the size of this parameter is still largely unknown. This paper...

It is divided into four substantive parts, as follows: Part 1, Stochastic Models and their Forecasting, is an introduction to linear stationary models with finite numbers of parameters, in particular ARMA (mixed autoregressive-moving average) processes, their probabilistic and forecasting...