The aim of this paper is to find out the forecasting model that is the one, which gives the best output of forecasting. So that policy makers can be benefited from this research. Thus, this research will also evaluate the performance of ARMA, and Box-Jenkins (ARIMA) forecasting models for KIBOR...

The study examines the methods of testing the presence of unit root and co-integration of time series data using those tests that assumes the presence of breaks and those that assumes no breaks. We employed Eliott et-al(1996) DF-GLS for the latter test and Perron(1997) for the former category....

Foreign driven medium-term oscillations that originate from uctuations in technological frontier countries gained widespread attention among policymakers. To study this phenomenon in the context of domestic and other foreign drivers of the euro area business cycle, we develop a medium-scale,...

In this paper we address the issue of assessing and communicating the joint probabilities implied by density forecasts from multivariate time series models. We focus our attention in three areas. First, we investigate a new method of producing fan charts that better communicates the uncertainty...