I decompose the expected return difference between cross-asset time series momentum and time series momentum into market timing and risk premium components, and show that market timing accounts for 71–79% of the difference. I thus show that two recent critiques of time series momentum do not...

In this article, we have tested a linear Gaussian state space model and the kalman filter in testing ARMA(2,3) models of the natural logarithmic monthly market returns of the US 1838 bond debenture closed-end fund. The aim is to estimate expectations that arises from the interaction of...

In this paper, we propose a model based on multivariate decomposition of multiplicative - absolute values and signs - components of several returns. In the m-variate case, the marginals for the m absolute values and the binary marginals for the m directions are linked through a 2m-dimensional...

Intelligent pattern recognition imposes new challenges in high-frequency financial data mining due to its irregularities and roughness. Based on the wavelet transform for decomposing systematic patterns and noise, in this paper we propose a new integrated wavelet denoising method, named...

To analyze the determinants of the observed variation in stock prices, Campbell and Shiller (1988) have suggested decomposing unexpected stock returns into unexpected changes in investors' beliefs about future cash flows (cash flow news) and discount rates (discount rate news). Based on a...