This paper discusses the levels and trend of external reserves in Nigeria. The relevance of this lies in the fact that it could help to monitor the reserves and throw early warning signal about any economic crisis. Monthly data on Nigeria external reserves for the period January 1999 to...

This paper proposes three short-term forecasting models for the adjusted external reserves using the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA), seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average with an exogenous input (SARIMA-X) and an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL)...

A space-time filter structure is introduced that can be used to accommodate dependence across space and time in the error components of panel data models that contain random effects. This general specification encompasses several more specific space-time structures that have been used recently...

In many applications common in testing for convergence the number of cross-sectional units is large and the number of time periods are few. In these situations asymptotic tests based on an omnibus null hypothesis are characterised by a number of problems. In this paper we propose a multiple...

We propose a multivariate Bayesian state space model to identify potential growth and the output gap consistent with the dynamics of the underlying production sectors of the economy and those of inflation and the labor market. Our approach allows us to decompose economic fluctuations and...

Principal component analysis denotes a popular algorithmic technique to dimension reduction and factor extraction. Spatial variants have been proposed to account for the particularities of spatial data, namely spatial heterogeneity and spatial autocorrelation, and we present a novel approach...