In this paper, it is analyzed whether core money growth helps to predict future inflation in a useful and reliable way … information not contained in the inflation history, that its inclusion in a forecasting model can increase the forecasting … accuracy, and that it has had a strong and stable long-run link to inflation over the last decades. A particularly promising …

This paper develops Area-wide Leading Inflation CyclE (ALICE) indicators for euro area headline and core inflation with … an aim to provide early signals about turning points in the respective inflation cycle. The series included in the two … turning points in the inflation cycle ex post and perform well in a simulated real-time exercise over the period from 2010 to …

inflation at different time horizons or frequency bands. The ECB has publicly supported this understanding of the framework …. This paper presents further evidence on the behaviour of euro area inflation using band spectrum regressions, which allow … frequency domain. The main finding is that variations in inflation are well explained by low-frequency movements of money and …