Many studies find that aggregate managerial decision variables, such as aggregate equity issuance, predict stock or bond market returns. Recent research argues that these findings may be driven by an aggregate time-series version of Schultz’s (2003, Journal of Finance 58, 483–517) pseudo...

We are investigating trend extrapolation using historical data from academic publications to forecast future technology directions. Many sources of academic information on the Web (e.g., Google Scholar, Scirus) provide a wealth of relevant information, yet they are not structured for...