We consider a new method to estimate causal effects when a treated unit suffers a shock or an intervention, such as a policy change, but there is not a readily available control group or counterfactual. We propose a two-step approach where in the first stage an artificial counterfactual is...

Recently, there has been a growing interest in developing econometric tools to conduct counterfactual analysis with aggregate data when a "treated" unit suffers an intervention, such as a policy change, and there is no obvious control group. Usually, the proposed methods are based on the...

We provide an overview of recent empirical research on patterns of cross-country growth. The new empirical regularities considered differ from earlier ones, e.g., the well-known Kaldor stylized facts. The new research no longer makes production function accounting a central part of the analysis....

Hours worked is a time series of interest in many empirical investigations of the macroeconomy. Estimates of macro elasticities of labour supply, for example, build on this variable. Other empirical applications investigate the response of hours worked to a shock to technology on the basis of...

We consider a new, flexible and easy-to-implement method to estimate the causal effects of an intervention on a single treated unit when a control group is not available and which nests previous proposals in the literature. It is a two-step methodology where in the first stage, a counterfactual...

We examine the existence of Real Interest Rate Parity (RIRP) for a number of Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries. Using time series techniques, we manage to identify cointegrating relationships. For a subset of countries our findings suggest the existence of a...

We consider large n, T panel data models with fixed effects, persistent common factors allowing for cross-section dependence, and possibly correlated persistent innovations that are assumed fractionally integrated. In the model, a) persistence in the innovations and the common factor allows for...

In Lisbon the European Council proclaimed a European growth strategy. It considers an average economic "growth rate of around 3 percent as a realistic prospect for the coming years" and assigns public finances an important role in the process of achieving this goal. This paper addresses the...

The present paper studies the panel data auto regressive (PAR) time series model for testing the unit root hypothesis. The posterior odds ratio (POR) is derived under appropriate prior assumptions and then empirical analysis is carried out for testing the unit root hypothesis of Net Asset Value...