This study documents the stylized facts about the business cycles in Turkey using quarterly data between 1987 and 2009. In particular, we document the business cycle turning points and average duration of cycles for Turkey, as well as the optimal smoothing parameter for Hodrick-Prescott (HP)...

This paper considers inference in log-linearized dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models with weakly (including un-) identified parameters. The framework allows for analysis using only part of the spectrum, say at the business cycle frequencies. First, we characterize weak...

In this paper we present a new database that allows deep industry-level growth accounting from 1991-2003. The database allows for the first complete analysis of the German industry performance drivers based on the contributions of 12 asset types in 52 different industries. The industry sources...

In this paper we present a new database that allows deep industry-level growth accounting from 1991-2003. The database allows for the first complete analysis of the German industry performance drivers based on the contributions of 12 asset types in 52 different industries. The industry sources...

We show that a simple and intuitive three-parameter equation fits remarkably well the evolution of the gross domestic product (GDP) in current and constant dollars of many countries during the times of recession and recovery. We then argue that it can be used to detect shocks and discuss its...

We examine house price forecastability across the 50 states using Dynamic Model Averaging and Dynamic Model Selection, which allow for model change and parameter shifts. By allowing the entire forecasting model to change over time and across locations, the forecasting accuracy improves...

Time-varying parameter (TVP) models have the potential to be over-parameterized, particularly when the number of variables in the model is large. Global-local priors are increasingly used to induce shrinkage in such models. But the estimates produced by these priors can still have appreciable...