Social science has come under a firestorm of criticism following the discovery that many findings cannot be replicated. This paper argues that increasing the use of out-of-sample tests would improve the reliability of findings in all fields, including “complex” fields such as macroeconomics....

For more than half a century, Manfred Deistler has been contributing to the construction of the rigorous theoretical foundations of the statistical analysis of time series and more general stochastic processes. Half a century of unremitting activity is not easily summarized in a few pages. In...

The current paper experiments with the conception and analytical model of principle components. The analysis utilizes data of Sudan to test the model fitness and data suitability. All the country's economic sectors are used in the analysis which also integrates high, medium and low income strata...

The paper studies Non-Stationary Dynamic Factor Models such that: (1) the factors Ft are I(1) and singular, i.e. Ft has dimension r and is driven by a q-dimensional white noise, the common shocks, with q r, and (2) the idiosyncratic components are I(1). We show that Ft is driven by r-c...

In this paper we propose to use the common trends of the Mexican economy in order to predict economic activity one and two steps ahead. We exploit the cointegration properties of the macroeconomic time series, such that, when the series are I(1) and cointegrated, there is a factor...

The data mining technique of time series clustering is well established in many fields. However, as an unsupervised learning method, it requires making choices that are nontrivially influenced by the nature of the data involved. The aim of this paper is to verify usefulness of the time series...

There is growing literature in macroeconomics, especially on business cycle synchronization, employing different methods of time series clustering. However, even as an unsupervised learning method, this technique requires making choices that are nontrivially influenced by the nature of the data...

Purpose - The purpose of the paper is to test and analyze the equilibrium economic relationships of the East Africa Community (EAC). Design/methodology/approach To attain the study's purpose the authors applied the Johansen cointegration test, including long-run structural modeling (LRSM),...

The political system always has a significant impact on economic indicators. Currency exchange is one of the indicators, which is influenced directly or indirectly by political developments. Investors and economic agents make investment decisions by not only economic outcomes but also political...

Only unstructured single-path model selection techniques, i.e., Information Criteria, are used by Bounds test of cointegration for model selection. The aim of this paper was twofold; one was to evaluate the performance of these five routinely used information criteria {Akaike Information...