In many credit risk and pricing applications, credit transition matrix is modeled by a constant transition probability or generator matrix for Markov processes. Based on empirical evidence, we model rating transition processes as piecewise homogeneous Markov chains with unobserved structural...

We investigate price duration variance estimators that have long been neglected in the literature. We show i) how price duration estimators can be used for the estimation and forecasting of the integrated variance of an underlying semi-martingale price process and ii) how they are affected by a)...

Likelihood based inference for multi-state latent factor intensity models is hindered by the fact that exact closed-form expressions for the implied data density are not available. This is a common and well-known problem for most parameter driven dynamic econometric models. This paper reviews,...

I expose the risk of false discoveries in the context of multiple treatment effects. A false discovery is a nonexistent effect that is falsely labeled as statistically significant by its individual t-value. Labeling nonexistent effects as statistically significant has wide-ranging academic and...

Known results on the identification of structural duration dependence in the presence of unobserved heterogeneity depend crucially on the proportional hazards assumption. Here, I show that variation in covariates over time, combined with variation across observations, is sufficient to ensure...

This paper uses a job duration model based on linked employeremployee data over the period 1989-1998 with an emphasis on the job mobility of the highly educated. It is shown that the job mobility of all prime age workers is sensitive to pecuniary incentives. However, wages as a whole include...

In this paper, we give an overview of the state-of-the-art in the econometric literature on the modeling of so-called financial point processes. The latter are associated with the random arrival of specific financial trading events, such as transactions, quote updates, limit orders or price...

For a time-continuous discrete-state Markov process as model for rating transitions, we study the time-stationarity by means of a likelihood ratio test. For multiple Markov process data from a multiplicative intensity model, maximum likelihood parameter estimates can be represented as martingale...

Likelihood based inference for multi-state latent factor intensity models is hindered by the fact that exact closed-form expressions for the implied data density are not available. This is a common and well-known problem for most parameter driven dynamic econometric models. This paper reviews,...

We estimate a general microstructure model of the transitory and permanent impact of order flow on stock prices. Jumps are detected in both the transaction price (observation equation) and fundamental value (state equation). The model's parameters and variances are updated in real time. Prices...