from an aggregation of country-specific forecasts. Factor models in particular prove rather accurate, where the factors …

forecasts (bottom-up approaches). Overall, all methods perform better than a simple benchmark for short horizons (up to three … out-perform bottom-up ones for real variables, but not for prices. Finally, when country-specific forecasts are adjusted … to match direct forecasts at the aggregate levels (top-down approaches), the forecast accuracy is neither improved nor …

paper show that the real-time consideration of these forecasts has the potential to improve the precision with which past … forecasts is also aptly demonstrated through the use of simulation techniques, density functions, and event probability … forecasts. …