This paper discusses various approaches to decompose economic time series into their trend and cyclical components. For over 30 years now, the Deutsche Bundesbank publishes trend-adjusted indicators in its Statistical Supplement 4 entitled ?Seasonally Adjusted Business Statistics? which are...

Financial markets witness high levels of activity at certain times, but remain calm at others. This makes the flow of physical time discontinuous. Therefore using physical time scales for studying financial time series, runs the risk of missing important activities. An alternative approach is...

The paper analyses whether communication and actual interventions in FX markets are successful in moving exchange rates over the medium- to long-run. It compares empirical evidence based on time-series analysis with that obtained from an eventstudy approach. Both the time-series approach based...

The current economic crisis requires fast information to predict economic behavior early, which is difficult at times of structural changes. This paper suggests an innovative new method of using data on internet activity for that purpose. It demonstrates strong correlations between keyword...

Financial markets witness high levels of activity at certain times but remain calm at others. This makes the flow of physical time discontinuous. Therefore, to use physical time scales for studying financial time series runs the risk of missing important activities. An alternative approach is to...

Motivated by the problem of setting prediction intervals in time seriesanalysis, this investigation is concerned with recovering a regression functionm(X_t) on the basis of noisy observations taking at random design pointsX_t.It is presumed that the corresponding observations are corrupted by...