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This chapter presents a unified set of estimation methods for fitting a rich array of models describing dynamic relationships within a longitudinal data setting. The discussion surveys approaches for characterizing the micro dynamics of continuous dependent variables both over time and across...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014024953
forecasting. Economic forecasting is made difficult by economic complexity, which implies non-linearities (multiple interactions … the algorithm in forecasting GDP growth 3- to 12-months ahead is assessed through simulations in pseudo-real-time for six …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012203223
We consider the problem of ex-ante forecasting conditional correlation patterns using ultra high frequency data …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010296287
This paper reinterprets Maganelli's (2009) idea of "Forecasting with Judgment" to obtain a dynamic algorithm for … combining survey data and time series models for macroeconomic forecasting. Unlike existing combination approaches which …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013139480
Measurable aspects of the economic convergence of EU countries form the main topic of this paper. For this purpose, statistical and econometric methods are presented and applied for revealing characteristic elements of such a process. A first group of methods refers mainly to aspects such as:...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010529083
A relatively simple frequency-type testing procedure for unit root potentially contaminated by an additive stationary noise is introduced, which encompasses general settings and allows for linear trends. The proposed test for unit root versus stationarity is based on a finite number of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010517695
Granger and Sims non-causality (GSNC) are compared to non-causality based on concepts popular in the microeconometrics and programme evaluation literature (potential outcome non-causality, PONC). GSNC is defined as a set of restrictions on joint distributions of random variables with observable...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012727017
I discuss nonlinear difference-in-differences models, arguing their interpretation depends on the context of their application. When parallel trends are assumed in the natural scale of the dependent variable, I contend the treatment effect is the interaction effect (a cross-difference), while if...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013241778
This paper investigates the estimation and inference of spatial panel data models in which the regression coefficient vector is a trending function. We use time differences to eliminate the individual effects and employ GMM estimations for regression coefficients with both linear and quadratic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013292793
We provide an overview of recent empirical research on patterns of cross-country growth. The new empirical regularities considered differ from earlier ones, e.g., the well-known Kaldor stylized facts. The new research no longer makes production function accounting a central part of the analysis....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014024246