Showing 1 - 10 of 12
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009705640
We investigate the presence of international business cycles in macroeconomic aggregates (output, consumption, investment) using a panel of 60 countries over the period 1961 - 2014. The paper presents a Bayesian stochastic factor selection approach for dynamic factor models with predetermined...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011556201
We study how financial factors shape and interact with the U.S. business cycle through a unified empirical approach where we jointly estimate financial and business cycles as well as identify their underlying drivers using a medium-scale Bayesian Vector Autoregression. First, we show, both in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012835003
The present thesis comprises two rather independent chapters. In general, the diagnosis and quantification of dependence is a major aim of econometric studies. Along these lines, the concept of dependence serves as an encompassing framework to analyze time series with two very different...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012799255
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012628242
The German economy is an important economic driver in the Euro-area in terms of gross domestic product, labour force and international integration. We provide a state of the art estimate of the German output gap between 1995 and 2021 and present a nowcasting scheme that accurately predicts the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013290910
The German economy is an important economic driver in the Euro-area in terms of gross domestic product, labour force and international integration. We provide a state of the art estimate of the German output gap between 1995 and 2021 and present a nowcasting scheme that accurately predicts the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013174037
According to a growing body of empirical literature, global shocks have become less important for business cycles in industrialized countries and emerging market economies since the mid-1980s. In this paper, we analyze the question of what might have caused a decoupling from the global business...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011584095
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011708530
Recessions and expansions are often caused or reinforced by developments in private consumption - the largest component of aggregate demand - which, as a result, varies over the business cycle. As such, an accurate measurement of the cyclical component of consumption and an understanding of its...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014380708