Dynamic equilibrium models are specifted to track time series with unit root-like behavior. Thus, unit roots are typically introduced and the optimality conditions adjusted. This step requires tedious algebra and often leads to algebraic mistakes, especially in models with several unit roots. We...

We develop a new targeted maximum likelihood estimation method that provides improved forecasting for misspecified linear autoregressive models. The method weighs data points in the observed sample and is useful in the presence of data generating processes featuring structural breaks, complex...