Autoregressive models are used routinely in forecasting and often lead to better performance than more complicated models. However, empirical evidence is also suggesting that the autoregressive representations of many macroeconomic and financial time series are likely to be subject to structural...

Best practice life expectancy has recently been modeled using extreme value theory. In this paper we present the Gumbel autoregressive model of order one-Gumbel AR(1)-as an option for modeling best practice life expectancy. This class of model represents a neat and coherent framework for...